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As Donella Meadows wrote in Thinking in Systems,”If you understand the dynamics (behavior over time) of stocks and flows, you understand a good deal about the behavior of complex systems.” In describing stocks and flows, Donella Meadows stated, “A system stock is just what it sounds like: a store, a quantity of material or information that has built up over time. Thinking in Systems: A Primer. Chelsea Green: White River Junction, Vermont. Additional reading materials and links will be posted on the course Sakai website. Software • STELLA – system dynamics modeling software used to graphically represent complex feedback systems. The STELLA software. While readers will learn the conceptual tools and methods of systems thinking, the heart of the book is grander than methodology. Donella Meadows was known as much for nurturing positive outcomes as she was for delving into the science behind global dilemmas. 1.2 Over View of System Analysis and Design 1.3 Business System Concepts. Lesson No: 1 Lesson Name: Overview of System Analysis & Design Author: Dr. Jawahar Vetter: Prof. Dharminder Kumar. Looking at a system and determining how adequately it functions, the changes to be. The systems approval is a way of thinking about the analysis. Download Thinking in Systems: A Primer, Donella Meadows PDF Ebooks. See more of Download Thinking in Systems: A Primer, Donella Meadows PDF Ebooks on Facebook. Forgot account? Create New Account. Limits to Growth—the first book to show the consequences of unchecked growth on a finite planet— Donella.

Peter Michael Senge (born 1947) is an American systems scientist who is a senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management, co-faculty at the New England Complex Systems Institute, and the founder of the Society for Organizational Learning. He is known as the author of the book The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization (1990, rev. 2006).

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Life and career[edit]

Peter Senge was born in Stanford, California. He received a B.S. in Aerospace engineering from Stanford University. While at Stanford, Senge also studied philosophy. He later earned an M.S. in social systems modeling from MIT in 1972, as well as a PhD in Management from the MIT Sloan School of Management in 1978.^[1][2]

He is the founding chair of the Society for Organizational Learning (SoL). This organization helps with the communication of ideas between large corporations. It replaced the previous organization known as the Center for Organizational Learning at MIT.

He is co-Founder, and sits on the Board of Directors, of the Academy for Systems Change. This non-profit organization works with leaders to grow their ability to lead in complex social systems that foster biological, social and economic well-being. The focus is on awareness-based systems thinking tools, methods and approaches.

He has had a regular meditation practice since 1996 and began meditating with a trip to Tassajara, a Zen Buddhist monastery, before attending Stanford.^[3] He recommends meditation or similar forms of contemplative practice.^[3][4][5]

Work[edit]

An engineer by training, Peter was a protégé of John H. Hopkins and has followed closely the works of Michael Peters and Robert Fritz and based his books on pioneering work with the five disciplines at Ford, Chrysler, Shell, AT&T Corporation, Hanover Insurance, and Harley-Davidson, since the 1970s.

Organization development[edit]

Senge emerged in the 1990s as a major figure in organizational development with the book The Fifth Discipline, in which he developed the notion of a learning organization. This conceptualizes organizations as dynamic systems (as defined in Systemics), in states of continuous adaptation and improvement.

In 1997, Harvard Business Review identified The Fifth Discipline as one of the seminal management books of the previous 75 years.^[6] For this work, he was named 'Strategist of the Century' by Journal of Business Strategy, which said that he was one of a very few people who 'had the greatest impact on the way we conduct business today.'^[6]

The book's premise is that too many businesses are engaged in endless search for a heroic leader who can inspire people to change. This effort creates grand strategies that are never fully developed. The effort to change creates resistance that finally overcomes the effort.^[7]

Senge believes that real firms in real markets face both opportunities and natural limits to their development. Most efforts to change are hampered by resistance created by the cultural habits of the prevailing system. No amount of expert advice is useful. It's essential to develop reflection and inquiry skills so that the real problems can be discussed. ^[7]

According to Senge, there are four challenges in initiating changes.

• There must be a compelling case for change.
• There must be time to change.
• There must be help during the change process.
• As the perceived barriers to change are removed, it is important that some new problem, not before considered important or perhaps not even recognized, doesn't become a critical barrier. ^[7]

Learning organization and systems thinking[edit]

According to Senge 'learning organizations' are those organizations where people continually expand their capacity to create the results they truly desire, where new and expansive patterns of thinking are nurtured, where collective aspiration is set free, and where people are continually learning to see the whole together.'^[6] He argues that only those organizations that are able to adapt quickly and effectively will be able to excel in their field or market. In order to be a learning organization, there must be two conditions present at all times. The first is the ability to design the organization to match the intended or desired outcomes, and second, the ability to recognize when the initial direction of the organization is different from the desired outcome and follow the necessary steps to correct this mismatch. Organizations that are able to do this are exemplary.

Senge also believed in the theory of systems thinking which has sometimes been referred to as the 'Cornerstone' of the learning organization. Systems thinking focuses on how the individual that is being studied interacts with the other constituents of the system.^[8] Rather than focusing on the individuals within an organization, it prefers to look at a larger number of interactions within the organization and in between organizations as a whole.

Publications[edit]

Peter Senge has written several books and articles throughout his career. A selection of his works:

• 1990, The Fifth Discipline: The art and practice of the learning organization, Doubleday, New York.
• 1994, The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook
• 1999, The Dance of Change
• 2000, Schools that Learn: A Fifth Discipline Fieldbook for Educators, Parents, and Everyone Who Cares about Education
• 2004, Presence: Human Purpose and the Field of the Future
• 2005, Presence: An Exploration of Profound Change in People, 'Organizations, and Society'
• 2008, The Necessary Revolution: How Individuals and Organizations Are Working Together to Create a Sustainable World

See also[edit]

References[edit]

Notes

1. ^Society for Organizational Learning biography for Peter SengeArchived 2006-09-23 at the Wayback Machine
2. ^'Peter Senge - MIT Sloan Executive Education'. mit.edu. Retrieved 12 April 2018.
3. ^ ^abPrasad, Kaipa (2007) Excerpt from an Interview with Peter Senge
4. ^Senge (1990) pp.105,164
5. ^Senge, Peter (2004) Excerpt Spirituality in Business and Life: Asking the Right Questions
6. ^ ^abc'Peter Senge and the learning organization'. infed.org. 16 February 2013. Retrieved 12 April 2018.
7. ^ ^abcOpen Future, New ZealandArchived 2012-04-26 at the Wayback Machine
8. ^'Intro to ST'. www.thinking.net. Retrieved 12 April 2018.

External links[edit]

The doubling time is the period of time required for a quantity to double in size or value. It is applied to population growth, inflation, resource extraction, consumption of goods, compound interest, the volume of malignant tumours, and many other things that tend to grow over time. When the relative growth rate (not the absolute growth rate) is constant, the quantity undergoes exponential growth and has a constant doubling time or period, which can be calculated directly from the growth rate.

This time can be calculated by dividing the natural logarithm of 2 by the exponent of growth, or approximated by dividing 70 by the percentage growth rate^[1] (more roughly but roundly, dividing 72; see the rule of 72 for details and a derivation of this formula).

The doubling time is a characteristic unit (a natural unit of scale) for the exponential growth equation, and its converse for exponential decay is the half-life.

For example, given Canada's net population growth of 0.9% in the year 2006, dividing 70 by 0.9 gives an approximate doubling time of 78 years. Spotlight on mysql keygen torrent. Thus if the growth rate remains constant, Canada's population would double from its 2006 figure of 33 million to 66 million by 2084.

History[edit]

The notion of doubling time dates to interest on loans in Babylonian mathematics. Clay tablets from circa 2000 BCE include the exercise 'Given an interest rate of 1/60 per month (no compounding), come the doubling time.' This yields an annual interest rate of 12/60 = 20%, and hence a doubling time of 100% growth/20% growth per year = 5 years.^[2][3] Further, repaying double the initial amount of a loan, after a fixed time, was common commercial practice of the period: a common Assyrian loan of 1900 BCE consisted of loaning 2 minas of gold, getting back 4 in five years,^[2] and an Egyptian proverb of the time was 'If wealth is placed where it bears interest, it comes back to you redoubled.'^[2][4]

Examination[edit]

Examining the doubling time can give a more intuitive sense of the long-term impact of growth than simply viewing the percentage growth rate

For a constant growth rate of r% within time t, the formula for the doubling time T_d is given by

${\displaystyle T_d=t\frac{\ln (2)}{\ln (1+\frac{r}{100})}\approx t\frac{70}{r}}$

Some doubling times calculated with this formula are shown in this table.

Simple doubling time formula:

${\displaystyle N(t)=N_0{2}^{t/T_d}}$

• N(t) = the number of objects at time t
• T_d = doubling period (time it takes for object to double in number)
• N₀ = initial number of objects
• t = time

For example, with an annual growth rate of 4.8% the doubling time is 14.78 years, and a doubling time of 10 years corresponds to a growth rate between 7% and 7.5% (actually about 7.18%).

When applied to the constant growth in consumption of a resource, the total amount consumed in one doubling period equals the total amount consumed in all previous periods.This enabled US President Jimmy Carter to note in a speech in 1977 that in each of the previous two decades the world had used more oil than in all of previous history (The roughly exponential growth in world oil consumption between 1950 and 1970 had a doubling period of under a decade).

Given two measurements of a growing quantity, q₁ at time t₁ and q₂ at time t₂, and assuming a constant growth rate, you can calculate the doubling time as

${\displaystyle T_d=(t_2-t_1)\cdot \frac{\ln (2)}{\ln (\frac{q_2}{q_1})}.}$

Where is it useful?[edit]

A constant relative growth rate means simply that the increase per unit time is proportional to the current quantity, i.e. the addition rate per unit amount is constant. It naturally occurs when the existing material generates or is the main determinant of new material. For example, population growth in virgin territory, or fractional-reserve banking creating inflation. With unvarying growth the doubling calculation may be applied for many doubling periods or generations.

In practice eventually other constraints become important, exponential growth stops and the doubling time changes or becomes inapplicable. Limited food supply or other resources at high population densities will reduce growth, or needing a wheel-barrow full of notes to buy a loaf of bread will reduce the acceptance of paper money. While using doubling times is convenient and simple, we should not apply the idea without considering factors which may affect future growth. In the 1950s Canada's population growth rate was over 3% per year, so extrapolating the current growth rate of 0.9% for many decades (implied by the doubling time) is unjustified unless we have examined the underlying causes of the growth and determined they will not be changing significantly over that period.

Related concepts[edit]

The equivalent concept to doubling time for a material undergoing a constant negative relative growth rate or exponential decay is the half-life.

The equivalent concept in base-e is e-folding.

Cell culture doubling time[edit]

Cell doubling time can be calculated in the following way using growth rate (amount of doubling in one unit of time)

Growth rate:

${\displaystyle N(t)=N(0)e^{gr\ast t}}$

or

${\displaystyle gr=\frac{\ln \left(N(t)/N(0)\right)}{t}}$

• ${\displaystyle N(t)}$ = the number of cells at time t
• ${\displaystyle N(0)}$ = the number of cells at time 0
• ${\displaystyle gr}$ = growth rate
• ${\displaystyle t}$ = time (usually in hours)

Doubling time:

${\displaystyle \text{doubling time}=\frac{\ln (2)}{\text{growth rate}}}$

The following is the known doubling time for the following cells:

See also[edit]

Donella Meadows Pdf

References[edit]

1. ^Donella Meadows, Thinking in Systems: A Primer, Chelsea Green Publishing, 2008, page 33 (box 'Hint on reinforcing feedback loops and doubling time').
2. ^ ^abcWhy the “Miracle of Compound Interest” leads to Financial Crises, by Michael Hudson
3. ^Have we caught your interest? by John H. Webb
4. ^Miriam Lichtheim, Ancient Egyptian Literature, II:135.
5. ^'Life Technologies'(PDF).
6. ^'Human cardiac stem cells'.

Donella Meadows Thinking In Systems Pdf To Excel Free

External links[edit]

Meadows Thinking In Systems